1. Medium Term (2030)

According to the forecast results of various research institutions, the installed capacity of new energy in 2030 will be about 1.2×109~1.6×109 kW, accounting for about 30%~40% of installed capacity, and the proportion of new energy generation will be about 17%~25%. New energy has gradually become the main body of installed capacity, giving priority to forming a high proportion of grid-connected patterns in Northwest, Northeast, Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, Jiangsu and other places.

In terms of installed capacity layout, it will present the characteristics of the "three North" scenic large base and the coordinated development of distributed new energy in the central and eastern regions. At present, the first batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base projects have been started, mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Gansu and other provinces, with a total scale of 9.705× 107kW; The second batch of large-scale wind power photovoltaic base construction plan has been defined; The installed capacity of Fengguang base planned for construction in 2030 is about 4.55×108 kW (including 3.15×108 kW of delivery capacity).

At the same time, due to the advantages of being close to the load center and convenient for nearby consumption, distributed new energy (especially distributed photovoltaic power generation) in the central and eastern regions will continue to develop rapidly; With technological progress, cost reduction and experience accumulation, offshore wind power will usher in a period of rapid development, and offshore wind power projects with construction conditions will be fully started and become an important power source for eastern coastal provinces.

In terms of power balance, with the increase of installed capacity of new energy, the maximum daily fluctuation of national new energy output in 2030 will reach 4×108 kW, and the random fluctuation and intermittency of new energy output will inevitably demand the flexible resource guarantee of the power system.

At this stage, the power balance of the system is still dominated by conventional power supply regulation, supplemented by pumped storage, chemical energy storage, load side response and other forms.

In terms of safe and stable operation, in 2030, the cumulative period when the output of synchronous units in the country accounts for more than 50% of the total load will reach 100%, and the new power system is still mainly operated by the AC synchronous mechanism. With the increase of the proportion of new energy and power electronic equipment, the operating characteristics of the system will change significantly: the moment of inertia and strength of the system will continue to decline, and the system vulnerability will increase.

These factors will exacerbate the risk of cascading failures, leading to more prominent security and stability problems of the power system, and then put higher requirements on the adjustment and support capabilities of new grid-connected equipment such as new energy and energy storage.

In the power market, the market environment is gradually mature, the medium - and long-term trading mechanism in the province is basically perfect, and spot trading has gradually expanded to the national scope.

New energy subsidies will be completely cancelled, and fossil energy power will jointly participate in the spot market, and find and transmit green environmental value through market-oriented means such as green power trading.

In order to adapt to the development of new entities such as distributed new energy, demand-side resources, virtual power plants, and electric vehicles, new power trading models such as peer-to-peer (P2P) transactions based on blockchain technology have begun to emerge, and the retail market has initially taken shape, and the flexibility of power trading will be further improved.

2. Long Term (2060)

In 2060, it is expected that the installed capacity of new energy in the country will be 2.7×109~3.4×109 kW, and the installed capacity and power generation will account for more than 60%; New energy will become the main power supply, forming a high proportion of new energy power system across the country.

In terms of installation layout, due to the obvious advantages of wind energy resources and land conditions in China's "three North" region, wind power will still be mainly concentrated development in the "three North" region; The development scenario of photovoltaic power generation will continue to show a diversified trend, and large-scale ground-based photovoltaic power plants will develop in tandem with distributed power generation.

Overall, new energy is mainly distributed in the "three North" region, in order to achieve spatial supply and demand matching (load centers are distributed in the central and eastern regions), greater cross-regional transmission capacity is needed to transmit new energy power.

In terms of power balance, the maximum daily fluctuation of the national new energy output in 2060 will exceed 1×109 kW, which is equivalent to the total installed capacity of the conventional power supply in the year, and the huge energy storage and load side response demand can not even be balanced only within the power system, and needs to be expanded to cover cold, heat, electricity, gas and other energy comprehensive system to achieve balance.

When a high proportion or even all new energy power supply occurs nationwide, the penetration rate of new energy will exceed 100%, and the overall supply of system power will be abundant, but the time-space mismatch phenomenon will be intensified, and the utilization hours of new energy and conventional power will be reduced.

In terms of safe and stable operation, the power system in 2060 will show the characteristics of multi-type power supply access, AC/DC grid hybrid connection, and multiple load response, and synchronous units will still play an important role in maintaining system construction and stability.

According to the calculation, the cumulative period when the synchronous unit output accounts for more than 40% of the total load will reach 84%, and the cumulative period when it is more than 50% will reach 53%.

The construction mechanism of power system will involve the traditional synchronization mechanism, the new power electronic operation mechanism or the combination mechanism, and the technical boundary conditions and technical characteristics of the construction will be more changeable. The two modes of grid-connection and networking of new energy power generation coexist, the control switching is more frequent, and the stability mechanism and control mode are more complex.

It is necessary to define the network operation mechanism of multi-type units, quantify the system construction conditions, and put forward the corresponding technical requirements for source, network and load.

In the power market, the market mechanism will be further improved, and the spot market, auxiliary service market, capacity market and retail market will mature one after another.

All new energy will participate in the electricity market, and eventually form a complete market system that includes electricity, capacity, auxiliary services, financial derivatives, transmission rights and other trading varieties, covering all types of entities on the source, network and load side. With a smooth connection with the carbon market, the market has become an important means to enhance the flexibility of the power system.