Survey: US executives have reduced confidence in the US economy

These CFOs generally expect their companies to face higher price and cost pressures, with an expected real GDP growth of 1.5% in the next 12 months, lower than the expected growth of 2.5% in the first quarter of this year surveyed.

The survey results show that the average probability of negative economic growth in the United States in the next year is 21%, compared to 12% in the previous quarter's survey.

The CFO Optimism Index for this quarter was 50.7, the lowest level since the end of 2012. This index was 60.3 in the fourth quarter of last year and 54.8 in the first quarter of this year, showing a sustained and significant downward trend.

"Price pressure has increased, real income growth has stagnated, and optimism about the overall economy has significantly decreased," said John Graham, a finance professor at Fuka Business School and academic director of this survey. "Monetary tightening is one of the main factors leading to a deteriorating economic outlook."

The Federal Reserve announced a 75 basis point rate hike on June 15th, the largest single rate hike since 1994, and may raise rates by another 50 or 75 basis points in the future. Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester admitted at a forum on the 28th that there is a risk of recession in the US economy, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes have only just begun.

On the 28th, JPMorgan Chase Bank in the United States released a survey results conducted from May 25th to June 10th, showing similar low confidence results. A survey shows that the proportion of CEOs, CFOs, and other senior executives of 1500 medium-sized enterprises in the United States who are optimistic about the economic outlook for the next year has sharply decreased from 75% in the same period last year to 19% now, the lowest level since 2010.

In a JPMorgan survey, 71% of executives stated that rising costs and high inflation are the biggest challenges facing businesses. 80% of executives stated that they will continue to raise prices to alleviate cost pressures.

In addition, the final revised data released by the US Department of Commerce on the 29th showed that the US real gross domestic product in the first quarter of this year decreased by 1.6% at an annual rate, down 0.1 percentage points from the previously released revised data. Personal consumption expenditure in the United States increased at an annual rate of 1.8% in the first quarter, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points from the previous revised data.

Bloomberg interpretation shows that the significant slowdown in consumer spending growth indicates that the foundation of the US economy is even weaker than expected.


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