With the increasingly severe situation of emission reduction and environmental protection, driven by technological progress and rapid cost decline such as new energy and intelligence, global energy is accelerating the transformation along the direction of diversification, low-carbon, decentralized, digital and globalization, and is entering an era of energy transformation and development.
At the same time, the China-Us economic and trade frictions, the oil price war between Russia and Russia, and the novel coronavirus pneumonia epidemic have made the future development of energy full of uncertainties.
New energy technologies and new business models will change the traditional energy supply model, and integrated energy services will gradually become the mainstream.
Clean energy sources such as new energy and natural gas will meet most of the new energy demand in the future, and the energy system will also undergo structural changes.
Low-cost technology will become the mainstream of future energy science and technology development, and information technology such as artificial intelligence will reshape the future of energy.
In the future, disruptive new technologies are likely to emerge in fields such as oil and gas, hydrogen energy, energy storage, and nuclear fusion energy, thereby fundamentally changing the future energy landscape.
An accurate grasp of the development trend of energy technology is of great significance for guiding the direction of scientific and technological innovation, as well as the formulation of national energy policies and the strategic transformation of enterprises.
China's "Energy technology Revolution and Innovation Action Plan (2016-2030)" proposed that by 2030, the construction of a perfect energy technology innovation system commensurate with national conditions, the overall level of energy technology to reach the international advanced level, in order to support the coordinated and sustainable development of China's energy industry and ecological environment, as well as into the world's energy technology power.
The program deploys 15 focus areas, which are: Harmless coal mining technology, unconventional oil and gas and deep and deep sea oil and gas development technology, clean and efficient coal utilization technology, carbon dioxide capture, utilization and storage technology, advanced nuclear energy technology, spent fuel reprocessing and high-level waste safe treatment and disposal technology, efficient solar energy utilization technology, large wind power technology, hydrogen energy and fuel cell technology, Biomass, ocean, geothermal energy utilization technology, high efficiency gas turbine technology, advanced energy storage technology, modern power grid key technology, energy Internet technology, and energy saving and energy efficiency improvement technology, the future development of China's energy technology system has been comprehensively discussed.
In 2015, the Chinese Academy of Engineering launched the major consulting project of "Strategic Research on China's Energy Technology Revolution System" [3], carrying out research in nine major energy technology fields, including nuclear energy, wind energy, solar energy, energy storage, oil and gas, coal, hydro energy, biomass energy, smart grid and energy grid integration. The energy technology roadmap has been formulated for the development of forward-looking technologies (2020), innovative technologies (2030) and disruptive technologies (2050) in three stages.
In recent years, with the double constraints of resources and the environment, as well as the progress of energy science and technology, the cost of new energy has been rapidly reduced, and the accelerated transformation of clean and low-carbon energy has become a global development trend. Energy transformation is not only accompanied by the adjustment of industrial structure, but also an important driving force for the progress of energy science and technology. Scientific and technological progress and energy transformation promote each other, and are profoundly changing the prospect of energy development.
This article is the author in the past two years to participate in the Ministry of Science and Technology, the National Energy Administration, the National Natural Science Foundation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" and the strategic research process for 2035, based on the current situation and development trend of energy analysis, the future development trend of science and technology in the field of energy made three aspects of thinking and judgment. In order to provide a bit of reference for our country to actively cope with the energy transformation and layout of future energy science and technology.
