The overall market of new energy categories this year is generally starting from the demand side. Originated from the 2030 carbon peak target, the implementation of the industry is photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage, lithium, new energy vehicles and so on. In order to achieve the goal of carbon peak, the overall policy has spawned a huge new infrastructure demand for photovoltaic and wind power, and the new energy generation is not subject to subjective control factors, and accompanied by a huge demand for energy storage industry. On the other hand, new energy vehicle products that are closer to consumers, the automobile industry chain itself is very long, Europe, the United States and China are also vigorously pushing, and the industry growth rate has ushered in an explosive time point. There is a huge demand for lithium in both areas.
The first half of today's article will talk about the situation on the lithium battery industry chain, which is the meeting point of all new energy industries. The next half will talk a little about wind power photovoltaic energy storage.
In terms of demand
The demand for new energy vehicles is expected to be about 2.5 million domestic sales this year, 2 million in Europe, 600,000 in the United States, and the new subsidy policy in the United States will increase the volume in the next few years. That's more than 5 million units worldwide. In terms of penetration, Europe is 20%, the United States is less than 5%, and the domestic is about 10%. At present, it will eventually pilot the policy of phasing out fuel vehicles in the local area, so as to promote the realization of the goal of reaching the peak of carbon, which requires about 50% penetration, and takes 2030 as the target time, with a large space and a high compound growth rate. In terms of ownership, there will be more than 25 million new energy vehicles in 2025. Corresponding charging pile in 8 million units. The back-end industry of battery replacement and recycling is also about to open the market.
Specific to market segments
The corresponding power battery of new energy vehicles accounts for about 40% of the total vehicle cost. The world this year is expected to correspond to the power battery installed vehicles about 280GWh, the domestic about 160GWh, but the domestic change this year is relatively large lithium iron phosphate share and triad. In terms of other applications of lithium, the total global demand for superimposed energy storage, consumption, and light power is about 409GWh. The total global demand for lithium is expected to exceed 1,000 GWH in 2025. The corresponding global electrolyte demand is more than 1 million tons, and the amount of lithium hexafluorophosphate per ton of electrolyte is 0.12 tons, that is, 120,000 tons. Corresponding negative electrode material 1.5 million tons. Corresponding diaphragm demand 11.7 billion square. The compound growth rate of the industry is 35%. Positive demand is more complex, is expected to high-end high nickel 760,000 tons, domestic about 250,000 tons.
Lithium battery four materials, electrolyte, positive electrode, negative electrode, diaphragm. The barrier of diaphragm and electrolyte is higher. The positive and negative electrodes are worse. In the industry clearance in previous years, CR3 is relatively high, but the follow-up competition of such industrial expansion this year is bound to be fierce. China has a better degree of globalization of the positive and negative poles, accounting for 80% of the world in 2020, so it will benefit from global expansion.
Further upstream lithium carbonate iron phosphate Lithium ammonium phosphate iron powder ferrous sulfate will face several times the demand. Lithium iron phosphate, which has a shorter production cycle, also needs 6-8 months. The expansion cycle of iron phosphate is more than 12 months. There is a one-year lag in supply. The expansion cycle of PVDF polyvinylidene fluoride takes about 2 years, and the positive binder of 1GWh requires 60 tons of PVDF.
On the whole, the overall increase of upstream raw materials is exaggerated, and the pressure on enterprises without a long agreement is greater. But if the current supply shortage eases, prices will be reassessed.
From the capacity side
Lithium battery industry expansion scale of more than 2000GWh about the overall production before 2025, has far exceeded the 2025 demand. Lithium hexafluorophosphate industry expanded production to more than 180,000 tons.
The company is the leading enterprise in the industry, but only upstream and downstream competitors entered the half year, CR5 market share has been reduced from 83% to 63%. Companies with high market share today must expand production to maintain share, while developing technology on high nickel or solid to maintain gross margins. At the same time, the demand for high-nickel batteries for lithium hydroxide is high, and Tianqi Ganfeng and Jiangte industries will benefit. Only Dang Sheng and Rong Bai two expanded production capacity to reach 130,000 tons.
On the negative pole, Barrett Pultai is the leading company in the industry. If it is expected that the demand of 1.4 million tons in 25 years, Shanshan to maintain the negative electrode shipment share of 16%, more than two hundred thousand capacity is needed in 25 years. The current production capacity is 120,000 tons. The negative pole of expansion is more rational.
Diaphragm market CR3 30% in 2018, 75% today. Barriers are relatively high, heavy assets, equipment patents are in the leading company. The price has not changed much and is stable. It is expected that the new shipments of diaphragm in 22 years will be 2.2 billion square meters, corresponding to 135GWh of battery production, which is more conservative. Njie Shares in terms of shipments and share is the undisputed industry leader. It is estimated that the total demand in 25 years will be 11.7 billion square, energy storage 2.1 billion square, and consumption 2.3 billion square.
PVDF is the raw material for the positive binder, corresponding to the global demand of 60,000 tons in 25 years. Domestic demand is about 12,000 tons this year. At present, the domestic production capacity is about 11,000 tons, of which international high-end products have technical advantages and are more scarce. Supporting product R142b expansion is also difficult, 1 ton of PVDF requires 18,000-20,000 tons of R142b, the overall supply shortage. With the use of NMP solvent, the price is also very serious, 1GWh lithium batteries need 1700 tons of NMP, accounting for 3-5% of the cost. It is expected that the demand in 21 years is 150,000 tons, the demand in 25 years is 1.05 million tons, and the production capacity release cycle takes 1.5 years, which is also more difficult to supply. This also suggests that self-supplied or long-association head lithium enterprises have more cost advantages in this case.
There are other subdivisions such as copper foil film DMC lithium electrolyte additives.
The upstream problem is lithium resources, and the supply sources mainly include lithium extraction from ores, lithium extraction from mica, lithium extraction from clay, lithium extraction from salt lakes. The expansion of lithium ore and mica is more difficult, and there are more companies participating in the acquisition projects. Salt lake lithium extraction is based on the old brine of potash fertilizer as raw materials, which is limited by the old brine production capacity and the industry growth rate is limited. In China's lithium reserves, the lithium resources in the salt lake account for 80%. In the past 20 years, salt Lake accounted for 60% of the output of potash fertilizer, and Zangge Holdings accounted for 20%. Ganfeng Lithium is a leader in extracting lithium from ores, with a designed production capacity of 40,000 tons and an actual capacity of more than 10,000 tons. Salt Lake shares have more than 10,000 tons of industrial grade lithium carbonate production capacity, 500 tons of potassium fertilizer emissions of old halide can be converted to lithium chloride 200,000-300,000 tons, one ton of lithium chloride can produce one ton of lithium carbonate. At present, the design capacity is 20,000 tons, and it is expected to increase to 60,000 tons. In general, the price of lithium ore and lithium salt is driven by downstream demand, and the price increase of processed products is mainly due to the shortage of supply in the upstream, and the production capacity is sufficient, such as lithium hydroxide and lithium carbonate.
In terms of market size
Some market segments are small in size, and the size of enterprises is limited. However, because of the optimistic market segment, the expectation is relatively high, so it will give a higher valuation. Similar to Tianci materials, this industry leader, the world's largest electrolyte scale, its own material supply degree is high, planning capacity, large customer lock share, the current valuation is relatively high. However, similar to the charging pile business and lithium battery recycling business, the overall market has not formed a large enough scale and demand, and even how the industry operates is not fully determined.
Risk warning
Looking back in the past, the entire lithium industry has experienced huge price shocks brought about by the decline of subsidies, the clearing of excess capacity, the withdrawal of competitive enterprises, and the price decline. Like stock valuations, the very low prices of the past do not mean that as long as there is an imbalance between supply and demand, it will usher in the heel of subdivided materials again. If the demand of the entire industry remains strong, the landing of new expected demand can digest the current valuation, and the industry may usher in valuation fluctuations, but the final result depends on whether the expansion of the industry is sustainable.
