Ningde plunged, because of what?

I see all kinds of so-called reasons, an article, a policy, a new technology.

In my opinion, it's still the same, because it's higher.

In July, I wrote an analysis of the Ningde era. In the article, we made six optimistic assumptions about the new energy market (electric vehicles + energy storage) in 2030:

Global electric vehicle sales accounted for 50%;
Global energy shift to clean energy, 10% of electricity needs to be stored;
Battery prices have not continued to fall because of technological advances;
The global market share of Ningde's battery business is still as high as 30%;
Net profit margin maintained at 10%;
Ningde does not do a fixed increase and does not dilute shareholders' equity.

Then give 30 to 40 times PE to the Ningde era in 2030. Finally, it is estimated that the profit of Ningde era in 2030 will be 82 billion, and the market value will be 2.46~3.28 trillion.

However, in that article I ignored that there will be a small number of electric vehicle battery replacement needs. This time, we continue to revise with Accounting Jia's optimism.

There will be about 150 million electric vehicles on the road in 2030 (the latest estimate from the International Energy Agency is 145 million). But a large proportion of them are new cars that have just been bought and do not need to be replaced. Based on half the old cars, that's 75 million.

Low-end car 3 years to replace the battery, high-end car 6 years to replace the battery, according to the average 5 years. The demand for battery replacement of old electric vehicles that year is about 75/5 =15 million.

Add this part to it, and under the optimistic scenario, the market value of Ningde era will be 3 to 4 trillion yuan in 2030.

And after today's close, Ningde Times 1.33 trillion. Therefore, buy Ningde Times now, and by 2030, the optimistic annual return rate is 8% to 11.5%.

Today, I made another estimate based on carbon neutrality by 2050. And give 15 times PE. The result was not far off. By then, the market value of Ningde Times will be about 10 trillion yuan. After buying today, the annualized return is about 8%.

In fact, it doesn't make much sense to estimate so far, just to shatter some readers' unrealistic fantasies. After all, the world has changed so much after 30 years. You can't imagine 30 years from now? If you think back 30 years, what was your life like and what products were you using? Answer it. 1991.

But in any case, even under various optimistic assumptions, the investment value of the Ningde era is very limited.

You should know that the annual return rate of 8% to 11.5% is the long-term return level of broad base indexes such as CSI 300 and CSI 500.

Crucially, this is under a variety of optimistic assumptions. And the return of the broad-based index doesn't require any optimistic assumptions, right

Some people say that the broad base also needs a little optimistic assumptions, such as national luck. Well, if the national luck is not good, Ningde will probably only mix worse, not better, isn't it?

However, don't be too discouraged, there is also an ultra-optimistic possibility. Is that sales of electric vehicles increased more than expected. For example, in 2028 or even 2026 (rather than 2030), 50% of sales can be achieved.

Unfortunately, there will not be too many points that exceed expectations, and there will be many points that fall short of expectations

In fact, when I analyzed Ningde in July, Ningde 567, 576 today, and only rose 1% in the middle 5 months, you say it is a coincidence

Since July 2021, the Ningde era has barely risen

I still hope that everyone will not wait for the crash to read this article in a panic. Instead, store it away and look at it when it goes crazy again, to alert yourself.

Of course, I am not here to say that the Ningde era will fall sharply. I mean, the current Ningde stock price is under the upper crazy friction, the opportunity is not big, the risk is not small.

We mainly buy funds, so finally talk about new energy funds. Just two quick points:

Since writing in July, Ningde has not risen, but some heavy new energy funds have risen a lot.

This shows that at that time, such a leader like Ningde peaked, but some second and third-line leaders, subdivided tracks, and old energy transformation, there are still opportunities. I wrote about this in August.

This is the first point I said: new energy or to buy active management, the current fund manager is still useful.

The second point I want to make. Today's fall is mainly the new energy sector, consumption, medicine, finance, cycle, and new energy outside the technology sector are OK.

So, take a look at the performance of your base. If the decline is more than 3% to 4%, I think this base is not good.

Why do you say that? The new energy index fell 4% today. Your base decline is larger than the index, indicating that not only the valuation protection is despised, but also the full position of a track, the level of stock selection is not as good as the track index.
Advise to stay away.

I have screened it, and there are 77 bases (including A and C, the same below) that have fallen more than 4% today, and 143 bases that have fallen more than 3.5%.