The end of American capitalism, the doubling of oil prices, AI detonating the security crisis in Europe and the United States! The foreign bank has made outrageous predictions for next year

Saxo Bank predicts that in 2024, AI technology will defraud state secrets by "pretending to be real", causing a security crisis; The United States through the "Treasury tax exemption" to stimulate investors into the US bond market, the US stock market tumbled; Donald Trump and Joe Biden lost the 2024 US election.

Saxo Bank's "2024 Surprise Conjecture" arrives as scheduled!

The year 2023 is drawing to a close, and every year at this time, Denmark's Saxo Bank releases a "wild forecast" of what they describe as "unlikely and unattended" events that could send shockwaves through financial markets if they occur.

As Saxo Bank said in a press release: "While these forecasts are not Saxo Bank's official position, they remind investors to consider all possible outcomes and prepare in advance."

Just because these predictions seem outrageous at the moment doesn't mean they won't come true. Several of Saxo Bank's past outrageous predictions have come true, including a 25% drop in the S&P 500 in 2008, a 2015 election that set the stage for Brexit, and a tripling of bitcoin prices in 2017.

In the geopolitical conflict intensified, European and American countries are swept by high interest rates, Qualcomm (132.94, 2.98, 2.29%) inflation rate, high debt rate, this year's Saxo Bank forecast is more focused on how countries cope with the end of the "old normal", as well as new technologies such as AI serious problems.

Saxo Bank's major outrageous predictions this year are that capitalism in the United States will end, and that the rise of generative AI will trigger the most serious US national security crisis since World War II.

Saxo Bank predicts that a well-known US government official will be deceived by artificial intelligence "fake" technology, revealing top secret national intelligence and triggering a security crisis.

Peter Garnry, head of equity strategy at Saxo Bank, said this would put pressure on tech giants such as Google (138.45, 7.02, 5.34%), OpenAI and Microsoft (370.95, 2.15, 0.58%), as well as sending shares of traditional media companies such as the New York Times soaring.

The six other seemingly outrageous scenarios Saxo Bank predicts could happen in 2024 include:

The global green transition has stalled due to cost pressures, crude oil prices have doubled to $150 a barrel, Saudi Arabia can afford to buy Champions League franchises and host world-class leagues, and Manchester United shares have doubled.
With diet drugs making people stop exercising, the world facing a major health crisis, and causing global productivity to drop, shares of McDonald's (286.79, -0.07, -0.02%) and Coca-Cola (58.74, 0.14, 0.24%) are set to soar.
The United States through the "national debt tax exemption" policy to stimulate the market into the US bond market, the end of American capitalism (the transfer of US government funds from private enterprises to the public) the bond market rebounded on a large scale, and US stocks plunged.
The US, UK, India, Brazil, Canada and France, the six highly indebted countries, gathered in Rome to form the "Club of Rome" to negotiate a new world trade terms, trying to reduce the deficit rate by adjusting the trade deficit, which will reduce people's confidence in the fiat currency system and bring huge momentum to the rally of gold, silver and cryptocurrencies.

The Japanese economy is booming, GDP growth is over 7%, the Bank of Japan is abandoning yield curve control and negative interest rate policy, and the yen is strengthening.

The following is the original report, Wall Street News compiled:

Tax-free US Treasury bonds The end of American capitalism

The geopolitical environment is forcing the U.S. government to ramp up defense spending, while the Federal Reserve continues to tighten financial conditions amid a second wave of inflation. To avoid social unrest, Congress was forced to agree to more spending. With the US budget deficit rapidly exceeding 10% of GDP (a level surpassed only during World War II and the COVID-19 pandemic), the government urgently needs to stimulate demand for US Treasuries.

The U.S. government recognizes that increasing the attractiveness of Treasury bonds is essential for equities. Congress agreed to exempt capital gains and interest income from U.S. Treasury securities.

The move marks the end of capitalism in the United States, where government money is being transferred from the private sector to the masses and, at the same time, benefiting from chronically low financing costs, U.S. stocks "twelve giants" (lilly (588.27, 0.98, 0.17%), novo nordisk (96.81, 0.78, 0.80%), Visa (255.82, 1.53, 0.60%), jpmorgan chase (156.79, 0.48, 0.31%), LVMH, ASML, and TSMC (99.29, 1.44, 1.47%) consolidated their market positions, while other stocks underperformed.

Market impact: With investors able to lock in the highest yields in decades and no tax burden, Treasurys of all maturities have rallied sharply, flattening the yield curve. The stock market has plunged, but some cash-rich companies have benefited from an inverted yield curve.

The green transition has stalled and oil prices have doubled

The global green transition has stalled due to cost pressures, OPEC+ led by Saudi Arabia kept a tight grip on oil supply, and oil prices surged to $150 / BBL in the middle of the year on stronger-than-expected demand, providing the impetus for the kingdom to overhaul its economy away from oil revenues and become a powerhouse in tourism, leisure and entertainment.

In recent years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a well-known soccer fan, has overseen a reform of the Saudi professional league to improve on-field performance by bringing in world-class players in a bid to make it one of the world's top 10 soccer leagues.

After Saudi Arabia's huge acquisition of the Champions League franchise, the new offer reached a level that the major clubs could not refuse, the FIFA World Champions League became a reality, and a large number of matches were played in Riyadh. The new league will eventually consist of 48 teams, with European clubs receiving 32 places as in the current Champions League, Asia/Middle East, Africa and the Americas receiving five places each, and the remaining places allocated to Oceania.

Market impact: Manchester United shares doubled and Brent crude rose to $150 a barrel.

The "miracle cure for obesity" is in short supply, and the health crisis is spreading

The "weight loss miracle drug" glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1) is popular around the world, and the effect is very good, and the demand is greater than ever. Slimming drugs are likely to be introduced into health insurance, further stimulating demand.

However, the supply of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs is not keeping up with demand, and patients have to wait years for injections. At the same time, since pills can effectively control weight, people choose to stop exercising and give up healthy eating, creating a serious health crisis. The global adult obesity rate is set to increase dramatically from 39% today to 45% in 2024, bringing with it a host of complications, increased illness and sick leave that reduce global productivity.

Market impact: McDonald's (MCD) and Coca-Cola (KO) each outperformed the market by 60% as demand for processed foods surged.

Generative AI has created the most serious national security crisis since World War II

A criminal gang deployed one of the most deceptive generative AI deep forgery techniques ever devised, enabling senior US government officials to leak top-secret information through phishing, triggering the worst national security crisis since World War II and ushering in a new era of artificial intelligence regulation.

The United States and the European Union took immediate action, declaring that all content produced by generative AI should be labeled "Made in AI," and forcing OpenAI and Google to restrict third party access to their large language models, only government-approved entities can use these new generative AI systems, due to concerns that generative AI will be harder to commercialize. The venture capital boom is waning.

The AI deep forgery incident has gradually evolved into a general public distrust of Internet information, and countries have stipulated that only news organizations approved by the government can release news to the public, dealing a heavy blow to social media and "illegal" news organizations.

Market impact: The value of traditional media companies approved by the government to disseminate public news soared, with shares of the New York Times doubling. Because the disastrous deep forgery technique was made using Adobe(608.78, 13.08, 2.20%) software, the government penalized the company, and Adobe shares took a beating.

Debt-ridden governments such as the US and UK are reshaping the structure of global trade

The United States, the United Kingdom, India, Brazil, Canada, and France formed the "Club of Rome" to negotiate new terms of trade to reduce national current account deficits.

In the process, trade surplus countries may take some measures to reduce their own trade surpluses, thereby reducing the deficit of deficit countries. Create a more equitable and stable economic model.

The six founding countries of the Club of Rome are the United States, Britain, India, Brazil, Canada and France. For countries with large surpluses, such as Germany, Norway, Japan, the Netherlands, and Singapore, adjusting current accounts with major countries would be a painful process.

Market impact: The fact that the world's reserve currencies are out of control has reduced people's confidence in the fiat currency system, which has brought huge gains for gold and silver.

Donald Trump and Joe Biden lost the 2024 US election

In 2024, an economic recession began in the United States and political attitudes changed dramatically. After four years of Trump and Biden's respective administrations, voters' enthusiasm for older candidates is waning.

As the economy and labor market faltered and Biden's approval ratings continued to sink, public dissatisfaction with Biden grew, while Trump's narcissistic posturing and erratic behavior narrowed the ranks of his hardcore supporters despite his large base.

On Election Day on November 5, Kennedy won the US presidential election with 38 percent of the popular vote, while Biden and Trump received similar numbers of votes. As a new era of American politics began, with a fundamental upheaval in congressional politics, Kennedy was able to build bipartisan coalitions through his policies, thereby removing the dysfunction that had preceded them.

Market impact: Kennedy's pro-peace message and pledge to improve the U.S. health care system and break up corporate monopolies sent defense, drug and health care companies sharply lower, while Internet and information technology companies weakened on fears of ensuing antitrust.

Japan's GDP rose by 7%

Japan's era of deflation is over, wages continue to rise, rising by more than 4% in 2024, and the Kishida government's plan to reduce the consumption tax has encouraged Japanese consumers to abandon the concept of saving to further stimulate domestic demand.

As demand continues to grow, companies have announced increased capital expenditure, and the ample cash reserves of Japanese companies indicate that their capital expenditure needs are strong. The labor market is also changing, with labor supply shrinking due to an aging population, while demand for health care and social welfare continues to increase due to rising domestic demand, which in turn feeds back into wage pressures, creating a virtuous circle.

Despite labor shortages, Japan has accelerated the implementation of its economic transformation by adopting a technology diffusion framework that helps increase productivity. With the support of the government, more and more technology companies have announced investments in Japan in 2024, and the effective control of technology costs has enabled the Japanese government to deal with the debt problem and continue to implement an accommodative fiscal policy, which will continue to drive economic, inflation and wage growth.

With the Bank of Japan still engaged in yield curve control, the Japanese economy is overstimulated, real interest rates are falling, nominal yields are constrained, and inflation expectations are rising. As a result, the central bank was forced to end its yield curve control policy in 2024, leading to volatility in global bond markets and Japanese investors moving money home.

Market impact: The yen strengthened as Japanese investors repatriated overseas funds, pushing USDJPY below 130, EURJPY below 140 and AUDJPY below 88.

The European Union began taxing the rich and demand for luxury goods plummeted

The European Union, the world's largest welfare system, has created nearly 500 billionaires, but its billionaires pay the lowest personal income tax as a proportion of their wealth compared to other countries.

European society has been on the brink of turmoil due to the external environment, the cost of living is rising, the European Commission will implement a law to impose a 2% annual wealth tax on billionaires, could raise the EU tax revenue of 42 billion euros for a range of infrastructure.

This has sent shockwaves through the European luxury industry, with recent research showing that the pursuit of luxury goods is closely linked to the level of income and wealth inequality. The European Commission's new wealth tax immediately lowered expectations for luxury goods demand, and investors dumped European luxury stocks.

Market impact: Affected by the new wealth tax imposed by the European Commission, LVMH shares plunged 40%, including Porsche and Ferrari (363.75, 2.07, 0.57%), other luxury goods shares also plunged.