The most important part of the meeting is the eight-word motto: promote stability with progress, stand first and break later.
Let's start with "promoting stability through progress". In football, one side attacks, the other defends, and the defensive side is always passive and dangerous. In contrast, the offensive side is more proactive. The same is true of economic policy. If you always wait until there are problems and risks to remedy, you will end up being passive and tired. How to "promote stability through progress"? First of all, the policy should be forward-looking, to treat "no disease", the policy should go in front of market expectations, and strive to exceed expectations. In order to achieve this, the government should pay great attention to the real situation of economic operation and reduce the misjudgment caused by information asymmetry.
Again, "stand before you break." In Chinese idioms, there are words such as "no break, no stand" and "great break and great stand".
Why put forward the idea of "standing before breaking"? Because "broken" refers to the elimination of bad things, which often means "tightening effect", broken things more, the economy will be difficult to bear. For example: pollution control is broken, corruption is broken, the three red lines of real estate are broken, and "deleveraging" is also broken... In our pursuit of high-quality development, we must eliminate "old growth drivers" and "old models" and not break ground.
But too much "breaking" can bring pain and downward economic shocks. What to do? Stand first. "Standing" means creating new momentum. How to create? Only by reform, reform is the biggest dividend of China's economy. The Central Economic Work Conference pointed out:
• We must continue to rely on reform and opening up to enhance the internal driving force for development. Only reform).
Why these eight words? It has to do with the analysis of the current situation. The meeting noted that:
• To further promote economic recovery, we need to overcome some difficulties and challenges. The main problems are insufficient effective demand, overcapacity in some industries, weak social expectations, many hidden risks, blocked points in the domestic cycle, and increasing complexity, severity and uncertainty in the external environment.
In the face of such challenges, the Central Economic Work Conference proposed:
• Focus on the central work of economic construction and the primary task of high-quality development.
Indeed, economics is the biggest politics of all. This is a testament to the practice of reform and opening up. Only when the economy is sound and employment is stable, can society be stable. This is the hard truth.
Although the United States is constantly manipulating China's development, the economic competition between China and the United States is still the main line. China must hurry up and concentrate on getting its own affairs in order. Good economic development is the best way to counter US attempts at containment. The meeting also said:
• Seize all favorable opportunities, make use of all favorable conditions, seize the opportunity to do more, do as much as possible, and strive to respond to the uncertainty of the changing situation with the certainty of their own work.
A sense of urgency.
Next, to analyze how to enter, how to stand? The meeting raised several key points:
1, "active fiscal policy to moderately strengthen, improve the quality and efficiency" : in the face of the lack of effective demand, government spending can create demand, which is the basic meaning of macroeconomic policy. At the moment, the only thing that can do more is the central Treasury. Local governments are under multiple pressures, such as the epidemic expenditure, the decline in land transfer fees, and the economic downturn, and some local governments are under heavy debt pressure. "Improving quality and efficiency" means that good steel should be used on the cutting edge. Given the pattern of declining returns on infrastructure investment, fiscal expenditure should promote consumption as a focus. It is proposed to issue 10 trillion yuan of consumption vouchers. Through the multiplier effect, $10 trillion in spending credits would boost the economy and tax revenues without increasing the actual government deficit by much. More importantly, market confidence is instantly activated by such a big move.
- "Focus on expanding domestic demand. To stimulate potential consumption, expand beneficial investment, and form a virtuous circle of mutual promotion of consumption and investment ": From January to September, the contribution rate of final consumption expenditure to economic growth was 83.2%, of which the contribution rate in the third quarter was as high as 94.8%. Insufficient consumption will affect the profitability of the real economy and inhibit investment. There is insufficient investment, fewer jobs and less confidence in consumption.
3, "Promote the development and growth of private enterprises, and implement a number of measures in market access, access to factors, fair law enforcement, rights and interests protection, etc." : as a "56789" private enterprise confidence is unstable, is the biggest challenge to the economy. The "31 Articles of the Private Economy" introduced this year is the beginning rather than the end of stabilizing private enterprises. To stabilize private enterprises, we must rely on concrete measures, have dry goods, and truly improve the market access, financing and direction expectations of private enterprises.
4, "Accelerate the construction of affordable housing," "dual-use" public infrastructure construction, urban village transformation and other "three major projects" : After years of rapid development, China's real estate has entered the "stock era". The focus of the future is not to continue to build commercial housing, but to focus on the two major pain points of affordable housing and urban village transformation. In this way, the mismatch between real estate supply and demand can be alleviated, so that more people can have their own homes. In this regard, the Singapore experience is particularly worth learning from (" people-centered "Singapore real estate, which is amazing and simple).
In terms of "breaking", the biggest change is real estate regulation. In the past few years, the real estate adjustment has been too large and too fierce, and decisive measures must be taken to prevent it from getting out of control and prevent systemic risks. In the long run, real estate is a big problem, but in the short term it is still the pillar of the national economy. This pillar can't fall down. How to distinguish between the long term and the short term is an art. Many old Chinese sayings say this: haste makes waste; There will always be trouble in the near future; Succeed in one battle...... China does need to get rid of its dependence on real estate, but it must first find new growth points through "creation" in order to "break" the old momentum of real estate. The meeting noted that:
• Actively yet prudently defuse real estate risks, meet the reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises of different ownership groups equally, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market.
Real estate, the word "stability" is ready to come out.
In terms of "breaking", the meeting also proposed that non-economic policies be included in the assessment of the consistency of macro policy orientation. This is also important. The formation of business expectations comes from the synthesis of various information, including a large number of non-economic policies. The author suggests:
• To the "private enterprise exit theory" such wrong views, to respond and clarify at the first time, so as not to let the rumors continue to ferment, causing irreparable scars.
• National security is important. Regarding policies and cases related to national security, it is necessary to maintain high transparency and promptly clarify misunderstandings to avoid affecting the sense of security of foreign investment.
The key is implementation. One action is worth a dozen programs. To prevent low grade red, high grade black. The meeting noted that:
• To ensure that the final effect is in line with the decision-making intentions of the Party Central Committee.
The key to implementation is people. The essence of management is incentive. To motivate people, one must use both a carrot and a stick. Only by focusing on "positive incentives" (carrots) can we create an atmosphere of positive action. The meeting noted that:
• We must dare to make good efforts to grasp the implementation, adhere to the correct orientation of personnel, and give full play to the enthusiasm, initiative and creativity of leading cadres at all levels.
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has encountered many shocks and challenges. Each time, reform and opening up have been the only way to revive the economy. China's economy still has huge room for improvement in innovation, consumption and urbanization, and China's economic system still has huge room for reform
