If we compare the match situation between the 2022 World Cup European qualifiers playoffs and the current European qualifiers playoffs, we will find that the latter is more uninteresting. The elimination of Portugal and Italy improved the level of competition in the play offs, while the other 10 teams such as Türkiye, the Czech Republic and Sweden were very strong.
However, there were no strong teams in the European qualifying playoffs this time, and there were also many traditional powerhouse teams, such as Estonia, who performed poorly in the group stage but entered the playoffs through unique rules, which lowered the level of the playoffs.
In the playoffs, weak teams are able to participate because some rules are confusing, which to some extent is false prosperity, leading to what we often say is "Europe has no weak teams". For example, Luxembourg could finish third in the group stage, but they defeated Portugal 9-0 and 6-0 respectively in two matches. Isn't this a weak team?
In fact, there is a hidden false prosperity in the playoffs, which is related to Soviet football. Although the Soviet Union no longer exists, after its dissolution, European football added more than ten teams, greatly enhancing the scale of European football. The Soviet Union has won the European Championship and Olympic Games in history, and has reached the semi-finals of the World Cup. However, the current Soviet team has not reached the level of that year, and it can be said that in the past thirty years, Soviet football has been declining.
What issues did this playoff draw people's attention to? It can be said that in extreme circumstances, the 2024 European Championship may become the lowest point in Soviet football. Since 2004, at least one Soviet team has participated in each European Championship, such as Russia and Latvia in 2004, Russia in 2008, Ukraine in 2012, and Russia and Ukraine in 2016 and 2021. Since the expansion of the European Championship to 24 teams, only the 2000 European Championship did not involve Soviet teams. In theory, for any European team, the difficulty of entering the European Championship should be lower than during the 16 team period.
Therefore, if there are no Soviet teams participating in the 2024 European Championship again, it will mean that Soviet football has entered the worst era. Specifically, regarding the playoff matches, why do we say that this reflects the false prosperity of Soviet football? Because among the 12 teams, there are actually 4 Soviet teams occupying one-third of the positions and distributed in 3 paths, not concentrated in one place. According to probability, Soviet teams may even secure these three seats.
However, in reality, only Ukraine is more competitive among these four Soviet teams, while the other four are clearly not strong enough. For example, in path A, can Estonia, as the playoff team with the worst qualifying results, bring surprises to Poland? For example, in the C path, Georgia may compete with Luxembourg, but it is not easy for Kazakhstan to defeat Greece, after all, good things like reversing Denmark 3-2 do not happen every time. Moreover, if Georgia defeats Luxembourg, they are likely to face Denmark, and advancing requires a miracle.
