Brokerage morning meeting essence: New energy vehicles midstream turning point gradually focus on new technology and localization opportunities


The market fluctuated throughout the day, the three major indexes were mixed, and the turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 773.5 billion, a decrease of 1.5 billion from the previous trading day. As of the close, the Shanghai index was up 0.26%, the Shenzhen Component Index was down 0.18%, and the chinext index was up 0.24%. Northbound funds bought a net 8.516 billion yuan throughout the day. U.S. indexes were mixed, with the Dow up 1.47 percent, the Nasdaq down 0.23 percent and the S&P 500 up 0.38 percent.

At today's brokerage morning meeting, CICC believes that the midstream inflection point of new energy vehicles is approaching, focusing on new technologies and localization opportunities; Citic Securities believes that the lack of demand dragged down the manufacturing PMI performance this month; Citic Construction Investment pointed out that the military and civilian applications of satellite Internet have bright prospects.

Cicc pointed out that the new car cycle + price sinking, terminal demand is still expected to maintain a high growth rate in 2024, the turning point is gradually approaching, and the profitability of each link is expected to gradually stabilize in 2024.

Affected by the production cycle, the lithium battery sector in 2023 valuation profit synchronously decline, the current sector valuation has been in the bottom range, with the lithium price volatility in 2024, as well as the tightening of the financing environment, the industry chain production capacity expansion slowed down, we expect that the price and profit of the industry chain in 2024 or will gradually stabilize, the supply and demand relationship is also expected to usher in marginal improvement.

Optimistic about the new technology and subdivision of domestic opportunities, new technology: lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP), composite copper foil, high voltage fast charge; Localization: Driven by the international environment, cost reduction and new applications, we are optimistic about the acceleration of the localization of conductive carbon black and copper foil/diaphragm equipment.

Citic Securities believes that due to the traditional off-season of some manufacturing industries, as well as lack of demand and other factors, the manufacturing PMI in November fell 0.1 percentage points from the previous month to 49.4%. In terms of structure, both ends of production and demand fell back, with the production index and new orders index being 50.7% and 49.4%, respectively, down 0.2 and 0.1 percentage points from the previous value.

From a structural point of view, the high-tech manufacturing PMI returned to above the critical value, and the equipment manufacturing industry boom continued to rise.

The manufacturing PMI ex-factory price index rebounded this month, and the inventory index of finished goods fell slightly, reflecting that the manufacturing enterprises as a whole are still in the passive destocking stage. In terms of non-manufacturing industry, the prosperity level of the service industry has declined, and the expansion speed of the construction industry has accelerated significantly.

We believe that before prices return to moderate growth and economic growth returns to the potential center, the incremental policy will continue to fall. Looking back, US bond yields are expected to fall further, opening up domestic monetary policy space. In the future, monetary policy and fiscal policy will work together and complement each other, which is expected to support the gradual recovery of the manufacturing industry and return to the expansion range.

Citic Construction Investment said that satellite Internet can achieve global coverage, is an important part of the star-earth integration network, low-orbit constellation is the focus of future construction. The military and civilian applications of satellite Internet have bright prospects and broad market space. The development trend of satellite Internet is mobile phone direct connection, on-board processing, inter-satellite link, high and low orbit satellite coordination, space-ground spectrum sharing and navigation enhancement.

NGSO orbit and frequency resources are scarce, the principle of "first boarding first occupying" is adopted, the number of global constellation plans is huge, the progress of Starlink constellation construction is riding dust, and the task of "occupying frequency and maintaining orbit" in China is arduous, and the construction of satellite Internet is urgent.

China has a relatively complete satellite Internet industry chain, but there is a huge gap with Starlink in satellite manufacturing and rocket launch costs, and policies frequently promote industrial cost reduction and efficiency. China's low-orbit satellite Internet is still in the early stage of construction, satellite manufacturing and rocket launch links are expected to take the lead, and the supporting ground equipment related targets are also worthy of attention.


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