During the third-quarter earnings call, when Musk was asked how many Cybertrucks he expects Tesla to deliver by 2024, he didn't directly answer the question.
Musk said at the time, "If you want to do something radical and innovative, like something really special like Cybertruck, it's very difficult because nothing can be copied."
You don't just have to invent the car, you have to invent the way to build it. So the more uncharted territory there is, the more unpredictable the outcome is."
On October 10, Guo Mingð« ¹, a well-known analyst of Tianfeng, said that Tesla's Cybertruck electric pickup truck is estimated to ship 100-200 units this year, 10-120,000 units next year, and 24-26 units in 2025
Kuo said that Cybertruck's innovative design, such as aerodynamic efficiency, is expected to maintain its competitive advantage until 2030, and the new design of Cybertruck 2 May not begin until after 2030
Prior to the launch of Cybertruck 2, Cybertruck will also be introduced with an upgraded/modified version with largely unchanged exterior design.
Last month, however, Musk called Cybertruck production "self-defeating" during Tesla's earnings call, and he warned that Cybertruck "has a lot of bells and whistles."
Perhaps Tesla might finally overcome what Musk says is the big challenge of getting Cybertruck to mass production without burning money.
However, according to Musk's own estimates, it will take 12 to 18 months of "blood, sweat and tears." He also said that Tesla is unlikely to reach annual production of 250,000 Cybertrucks by 2025.
In this difficult outlook, some analysts have even suggested that Tesla cancel the Cybertruck. Jeffreies analyst Philippe Houchois forecast lower earnings and free cash flow and lowered his price target for Tesla shares to $210 per share.
Houchois believes that while Cybertruck is a great product, from a financial perspective, it will take a year to a year and a half for it to be positive for the company's cash flow.
He suggested that Tesla should focus on "mass production for the global market and supply of 4680 batteries for the Model Y," rather than devoting more resources to ramping up Cybertruck production.
