On December 6, Lenovo Group's share price opened high, up nearly 8%. Recently, Lenovo Group's share price has maintained an upward trend as a whole, rising to a record high of HK $10.1. It is worth noting that Lenovo Group's stock price is not only a short-term upward, in the long term, Lenovo Group is favored by southbound funds, the latter continued to net buy listed companies, as of the close of December 5, the proportion of shares in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has risen to 4.48%, pushing Lenovo Group's stock price from the beginning of the year to the close of the day up more than 50%.
Behind the high share price of Lenovo Group is the market's feedback on the expected trend of AI track. At present, the technological change led by AI is reshaping thousands of industries, which is reflected in the rise of AI investment in the market, and the trend of AI concept stocks is overwhelming. The panoramic AI ecology created by Lenovo Group with AI PC as the core has built a long-term competitive advantage and huge imagination space for it.
The medium - and long-term growth of AI is expected
Industry analysts believe that this round of the market catalyzed by AI is not just a short-term hype, but has long-term development potential. The 2024 strategy report released by a number of brokerages believes that the main line of investment next year is still focused on AI. According to Citic Securities (20.950, -0.08, -0.38%), experience from previous technology waves shows that people tend to overestimate the short-term changes brought by new technologies and underestimate the long-term potential of technological waves. AI will bring the digitalization and intelligence of traditional thousands of industries, which is expected to open up a trillion dollar potential market space and a larger market value space in the long run, and even give birth to the next generation of scientific and technological hardware.
In fact, from the perspective of market potential, according to IDC, the total global AI IT investment scale will increase to $423.6 billion in 2027, with a five-year compound growth rate of about 26.9%. In terms of the Chinese market, it is expected that China's AI investment scale is expected to reach $38.1 billion in 2027. According to IDC, the shift in enterprise IT spending to AI will be rapid and dramatic, affecting almost every industry and application. By 2025, Global 2000 (G2000) companies will spend more than 40% of their core IT spending on AI-related initiatives, leading to double-digit growth in product and process innovation rates.
From the perspective of development basis, the current development of AI is supported by favorable policies. From the "Interim Measures for the Management of Generative Artificial Intelligence Services" released in July this year to the "Action Plan for High-quality Development of Computing Infrastructure" and other policy support documents issued in October, it shows that the state is vigorously supporting the development and application of AI, laying the policy foundation for the long-term development potential of the AI main line.
From the perspective of industrial development needs, in the era of digital economy, digital capability is an important part of the core competitiveness of enterprises. Based on the productivity changes brought by AI, enterprises generally have the need to use AI to improve efficiency and enhance digital capability. In addition, at present,AI technology is evolving towards general Artificial intelligence (AGI), and with the continuous iteration of technology,AI application prospects will be wider and the development potential is unlimited.
At present,AI development is experiencing a breakthrough in AI large model technology, but the current reality is the commercialization progress of AI large model. According to the research report of Dongxing Securities (8.690, -0.10, -1.14%), there are four types of cash realization paths for large model applications, which are mature enabling software, typical applications such as AI+ office software, AI+ education, etc. The second is to enable mature hardware, representing scenarios such as AI PC; There are also large model native applications (like Midjourney) and large model native hardware (like AI Pin).
Among them, by optimizing the model,AI PC reduces the demand for hardware resources of the model and improves the reasoning speed of the model, which can be used to fill the gap in AI computing power and enable PC clients to realize AI applications. The industry generally believes that 2024 is expected to become the first year of AI PC scale shipments, and the penetration rate is expected to accelerate from 2025 to 2026. Lenovo Group, as the world's largest PC manufacturer, is the leading force in promoting AI PC reform. At this year's Innovation and Technology Conference, Lenovo Group has demonstrated the AI PC concept machine, which has a clear first-mover advantage.
AI PC resonates with consumer electronics recovery
The industry generally believes that the combination of AI and PC has opened the prelude to the end-to-side large model and promoted the accelerated innovation of intelligent terminals. At this stage, the development direction of AI large model is mainly in the direction of long text, and AI PC will take the local model as the direction, which will promote AI ability to benefit everyone. Oriental Securities (8.680, -0.10, -1.14%) also pointed out that in the process of popularization of large models to the personal end,AI PC is used to meet the requirements of the hardware end.
Alikmu Alamiti, vice president of Lenovo Group and vice president of strategy and business development in China, said that AI PC will be the best terminal for building personal models. Specifically, building personal models requires natural language interaction and general AI capabilities, as well as a strong computing power dependency and the ability to read and use personal private data. PC's rich interactive functions, productivity platform attributes, and advantages in computing power, storage, etc., can make PC a key terminal that can carry individual models.Of particular concern is that AI PC, as one of the important scenarios for AI application landing, has consumer and scientific and technological attributes, and is expected to take the lead in opening up development space under the prospect of recovery of the consumer electronics market. Gartner expects the PC market to begin to recover in the fourth quarter of this year, with global PC shipments growing 4.9% in 2024. At the same time, the destocking cycle of PC manufacturers has basically ended, and the market recovery trend is obvious. Cinda Securities (20.300, -0.13, -0.64%) pointed out that "AI+ consumer electronics" two-wheel drive, recovery and innovation resonance, layout opportunities continue to arise.
It can be said that in the process of AI PC gaining momentum, the recovery of the consumer electronics market provides a purchasing power base for AI PC market promotion. Lenovo Group in the PC industry market position is stable, the second quarter of this year, the shipment market accounted for 23.4%, the number of activated market accounted for 30.6%, continue to maintain the world's first market share, followed by AI PC drive, Lenovo Group will open a new growth cycle.
In addition to the layout of AI PCS, Lenovo Group is also working on the comprehensive AIization of its business under the new IT technology architecture covered by the full elements of "end-edge-cloud-network-intelligence", such as AI-oriented intelligent terminals such as AI mobile phones and AI workstations, as well as AI-optimized infrastructure and AI-enabled solution services. Through the comprehensive layout of AI, Lenovo Group has built panoramic AI capabilities from the pocket to the cloud, and is one of the most comprehensive manufacturers of building modules required for enterprise hybrid AI.
Overall, the long-term trend of AI investment is clear, but the market will be more focused on industries and companies that can really enjoy the performance of artificial intelligence. By creating the most comprehensive AI products and services, Lenovo Group has formed a panoramic AI ecology represented by AI PC, which will drive the market value to continue to rise while opening a new growth cycle.
